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Título del libro: Simultech 2012 - Proceedings Of The 2nd International Conference On Simulation And Modeling Methodologies, Technologies And Applications
Título del capítulo: Use of fuzzy cognitive maps for climate system stability analysis

Autores UNAM:
CARLOS GAY Y GARCIA; ALEJANDRO IVAN PAZ ORTIZ;
Autores externos:

Idioma:
Inglés
Año de publicación:
2012
Palabras clave:

Adjacent matrix; Causal relations; Climate system; Climatic systems; Cognitive maps; Earth's climate; Equilibrium state; Fuzzy cognitive map; Fuzzy weight; Input node; Knowledge networks; Min-max; Qualitative analysis; State vector; System Dynamics; Convergence of numerical methods; Feedback; Fuzzy rules; Fuzzy systems; System stability


Resumen:

In the present work we use fuzzy cognitive maps for the qualitative analysis of the earth's climate system dynamics. First of all, we identify the subsystems which determine, as a hole, the stability of the climatic system. Later we develop cognitive maps (knowledge networks) based on the documented relationships between the subsystems (nodes of the network). The relationships between the nodes can be precise (quantifiable) or fuzzy (not quantifiable). Once the map is built, we use the state vector and adjacent matrix technique to assess the response of the system (the system converges or diverges) to the changes in the input node values in order to identify the possibles feedback. Then the Min-Max criteria is used to evaluate the effect of the network over the nodes, according to the fuzzy weights assigned to the edges (causal relations between nodes). Finally, we discuss some possible changes in the network in order to show how the system dynamic can be modified and can lead the system into a desired equilibrium state.


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