Título del libro: Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes And Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach
Título del capítulo: An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment
SERVANDO DE LA CRUZ REYNA; ANA TERESA MENDOZA ROSAS;
Autores externos:
Idioma:
Inglés
Año de publicación:
2015
Palabras clave:
Geology; Hazards; Pareto principle; Poisson distribution; Time series; Volcanoes; Weibull distribution; Wind effects; Extreme value theory; Pareto distributions; Poisson process; Volcanic eruptions; Volcanic hazards; Weibull analysis; Time series analysis
Resumen:
The statistical analysis of size-qualified volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard. Such series generally describe complex processes that may be time dependent, involving different types of eruptions over a wide range of timescales. The hazard assessment thus requires a characterization of the eruptions that reflects their destructive potential, that is, an appropriate measure of their "size." However, available data to size qualify eruptions are frequently unknown and incomplete, as often are their times of occurrence. This is particularly true for "rare," uncommon eruptions exceeding the "normal" activity, which may be regarded as extreme events. Here, we describe statistical methods that have proven useful to deal with such difficulties, and describe a procedure to analyze eruptive sequences of individual volcanoes or groups of volcanoes, as illustrated with several examples of hazard estimates. The procedure involves three steps: First, the historical eruptive series is complemented with a series constructed from any available geological-time eruption data. Either series may contain extreme events, but it is more likely that such extreme eruptions belong to the geological record. Both series are then linked assuming a scaling, self-similarity relationship between the eruption size and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Second, a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose times between successive eruptions manifests the time dependence, if any, through its shape parameter. Finally, the linked eruption series are analyzed using extreme value theory as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function, from which the probabilities of future eruptions may be estimated. © 2016 by the American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved.
Entidades citadas de la UNAM:
ISBN:
9781119157052
Editorial:
Wiley Blackwell Nombre de la publicación:
An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment
Página inicial:
195
Página final:
203
