®®®® SIIA Público

Título del libro: An Agent-Based Model Of Food-Borne Diseases Under Climate Change Scenarios In Mexico City The Risk Of Street-Food In A Warming City
Título del capítulo: A simple fuzzy model to estimate carbon emissions towards 2100 consistent with expected temperature increases

Autores UNAM:
CARLOS GAY Y GARCIA; OSCAR CASIMIRO SANCHEZ MENESES;
Autores externos:

Idioma:
Inglés
Año de publicación:
2017
Palabras clave:

Carbon dioxide; Decision making; Carbon emissions; Decision makers; Global temperatures; Global-mean temperature; Input and outputs; Linear Emission Pathways; Moderate climate; Temperature increase; Climate models


Resumen:

It is a matter of discussion the magnitude of impacts caused by incremental thresholds of global temperature over the most important socio-economic and natural sectors. The focus is on the 2 C and 1 C thresholds. Based on a set of linear emission trajectories of CO2, a simple fuzzy model which estimates CO2 emissions for 2100, starting from the emissions projected for 2030 is shown. An additional fuzzy variable, the year for which the net carbon emissions begin to decrease, is also calculated. For the estimates of future global mean temperature increments, the simple climate model MAGICCv5.3, with moderate climate sensitivity, was used. The uncertainties of values of future emissions are easily included by a convenient selection of fuzzy sets in the input and output variables of the model. The results show that, in order to reach the 2 C threshold, it will be necessary to require negative net emissions for years as close to 2030 as 2060s and, even more, for the case of 1 C. Indeed, 1 C is, by now, far of the actual mitigation capabilities of the world. This information must be useful for the decision makers. The model developed can be extended for other values of global temperature increments. © Copyright 2017 by SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved.


Entidades citadas de la UNAM: